Thames' tie-breaking homer pushes Yanks past Jays
Baseball Betting Lines
09/04/2010 - Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Marcus Thames clubbed a two-run homer to snap a seventh-inning tie, lifting the New York Yankees to a 7-5 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays in the second of a three-game series at Yankee Stadium.
Robinson Cano singled home a pair of runs in New York's season-high eighth straight victory. Brett Gardner and Derek Jeter also knocked in a run apiece as the Yankees increased their lead in the AL East to two games over Tampa Bay, which is set to play Saturday night against Baltimore.
Javier Vazquez was back in New York's starting rotation after a stint in the bullpen and was roughed up for five runs on four hits and four walks in 4 2/3 innings. Joba Chamberlain (2-4) picked up the win with a scoreless inning of relief and Mariano Rivera worked around a two-out single in the ninth for his 29th save.
Lyle Overbay homered, doubled and drove in three runs for Toronto, which has lost three straight and five of its last six. John McDonald also connected for a two-run homer in defeat.
The Yankees snapped a 5-5 deadlock with a two-out rally in the seventh against Toronto reliever Jason Frasor (3-4). After the first two batters were retired, Cano singled and Thames followed with a blast over the wall in left-center field for his 11th home run of the season.
"Big. Huge home run," said Yankees manager Joe Girardi about Thames' homer. "Marcus has been a huge addition for us."
Kerry Wood took over for Chamberlain in the eighth and set Toronto down in order and Rivera came on in the ninth, striking out Aaron Hill to end it.
Vazquez retired the side in order in the first, but immediately ran into trouble in the second. Overbay connected for a one-out homer, his 17th of the season, and McDonald added his two-run shot off the left field foul pole to make it 3-0.
The Yankees tied it in the third. Francisco Cervelli hustled out a double with one out and Gardner drew a walk before Jeter doubled just inside the bag at third to score one run. Mark Teixeira walked to load the bases for Cano, who came through with a two-run single to center.
New York then went ahead with two in the fourth. Cervelli doubled to put two aboard for Gardner, who scored one with a grounder to shortstop. After Jeter walked, Cervelli scored on a wild pitch to make it 5-3.
Vazquez issued a two-out walk to Jose Bautista in the fifth and Vernon Wells singled. Dustin Moseley came on for the Yankees and Overbay greeted him with a double to chase home both runners.
"I was battling all day," said Vazquez, who was surprised at being lifted one out away from qualifying for a win. "It could have been a better outing, but the fact that I got taken out early...I didn't have a chance. He's still the manager and you have to respect that."
Game Notes
Bautista, the big league leader with 43 homers, was ejected in the seventh inning for arguing a called third strike...Toronto starter Mark Rzepczynski was tagged for five runs on six hits in four innings...The Yankees evened the season series at seven wins apiece...Yankees lefty Andy Pettitte, sidelined with a groin strain, threw a simulated game and reported no pain...Yankee slugger Alex Rodriguez also hit during the simulated game and could be activated off the disabled list Sunday.
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Sportsbook Betting Lines
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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