Cal hopes lower expectations lead to more success
NCAA Football Betting Lines
08/12/2010 -
BERKELEY, Calif. (AP) -The talk of the Heisman Trophy, a Rose Bowl and BCS bids that was so prevalent around California last year feels as far away as the Golden Bears' last outright Pac-10 title more than a half-century ago.
After yet another promising season came to a disappointing finish, and with star running back Jahvid Best off to the NFL, expectations are much lower for Cal in 2010.
A team that made it to No. 6 in the country last September before finishing outside the Top 25 for the third straight season enters this year picked seventh in the Pac-10.
``Each year brings new challenges and you approach each year differently,'' coach Jeff Tedford said. ``Last year with really high expectations, a lot of talk was, 'We welcome them. We'll do this or that.' That's changed. We're not going into it with that mindset anymore because I do not want to get into the situation where if we stub our toe the whole world caved in. It felt like it. That's not what we need. That's not how we need to live.''
That's exactly what happened last year. The lofty preseason projections were followed by a 3-0 start that led many around Cal to believe the team would finally make it back to the Rose Bowl for the first time since after the 1958 season.
But in less time than it takes a rose to wilt, the Bears lost back to back games to Oregon and Southern California by a combined 72-6. Tedford said that even when the team was 8-3, it felt like 3-8 because of the preseason hype. After a 42-10 defeat at Washington and a Poinsettia Bowl loss to Utah, Cal finished 8-5.
``When we are the top dog it just seems like we fall flat on our face,'' senior linebacker Mike Mohamed said. ``That's something that we've talked about. When we do get to the top, what do we have to do to stay up there. We're capable of getting up there, but we have to be capable of staying up there.''
Based on the preseason prognostications, most experts doubt whether Cal can even get close to the top this season.
That's just the kind of talk the Bears want to hear.
``They tell us not to read the papers and not to watch TV and all that stuff,'' tailback Shane Vereen said. ``But it's really hard not to. It's hard not to listen to what is being said. So we know. We know that we're not slotted to win a lot of games. We're picked to finish seventh. We know all that. It just adds fuel to the fire.''
Vereen has the task of replacing Best, who finished his career at Cal with 2,668 yards rushing, 62 catches for 533 yards and 35 total touchdowns.
Vereen got a head start on that last year when Best missed the final four games of the season after a frightening fall knocked him out and sent him to the hospital with a concussion and sore back.
Vereen rushed for 566 yards and six touchdowns in the final four games for Cal. Vereen's best performance came in the Big Game at Stanford, when he carried 42 times for 193 yards and three scores in a 34-28 victory. Vereen finished his sophomore season with 852 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns.
``It was important for the team and for myself to show that I can do it and that I actually did it,'' Vereen said. ``The running game for our offense is make or break for us because it helps so many other parts of the offense.''
A big year for Vereen will be especially helpful for quarterback Kevin Riley, who bore the brunt of the criticism for the offense's struggles a year ago. Riley shone at times but was woefully inconsistent. He completed only 54.7 percent of his passes and struggled when being pressured by the defense.
Tedford went into camp saying Riley was his starter unless he was beaten out in August by Beau Sweeney or Brock Mansion. Tedford pointed out that Riley was the active leader in the Pac-10 in wins, touchdown passes and starts, adding that he hopes that experience pays off on the field.
``This is his team,'' Tedford said. ``It's his senior year. Kevin's not stupid. He sees what's been out there. Even though he feels like he has a lot to prove, I don't want him thinking he has a lot to prove. I want him playing his game and doing his best and have a little bit of fun with it and not put so much stress on himself.''
Riley's teammates saw a big difference in the quarterback at spring practice and during informal summer workouts. The key is how that translates to the field once the season starts.
``This is the hardest I've ever seen him work,'' Vereen said. ``This is the most focused I've seen him. He's established himself as a leader on this team and the leader of this offense.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
STANFORD, Calif. (AP) -When it comes to replacing Toby Gerhart and his 28 touchdowns, 1,871 rushing yards and countless big plays, Stanford will have a hard time finding one person to fill the job.Gerhart's running duties will likely be shared by Je
<< UCLA looks for improvement under Neuheisel
LOS ANGELES (AP) -UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel insists he takes no pleasure in his crosstown rivals' troubles.He wants the Bruins to win the Race for Los Angeles because they're better than Southern California, not because the Trojans were tripped up b
<< Oregon expects to excel after offseason turmoil
EUGENE, Ore. (AP) -When Oregon's season ended in Pasadena on New Year's Day, it appeared all but certain that the Pacific-10 champions would lead the conference again this fall. But after a tumultuous offseason, the Ducks' outlook in the league is f
<< Lifelong Vikings fan Al Franken visits camp
MANKATO, Minn. (AP) -Vacationing Sen. Al Franken has a few things to say about his beloved Minnesota Vikings.Franken says he expects Brett Favre to be the quarterback again this season. He believes the team should have a new stadium built. Oh, and h
<< Mets place Rodriguez on restricted list
Flushing, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Mets placed closer Francisco
Rodriguez on the restricted list on Thursday following an incident with a
family member on Wednesday night.
Rodriguez will miss the next two games without pa
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Major League Baseball has approved the sale of the Texas Rangers from Tom Hicks to a group led by Chuck Greenberg and Nolan Ryan. The lengthy process finally came to a close Thursday after the Greenberg-Rya
Trail Blazers hire pair of assistant GMs >>
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Portland Trail Blazers rounded out their
front office staff on Thursday by hiring Bill Branch and Steve Rosenberry as
assistant general managers.
Terms of the contracts were not disclosed.
"I've ha
UConn G Doty to miss 2010-11 season with ACL tear >>
Storrs, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Connecticut junior guard Caroline Doty will
miss the entire 2010-11 season with a torn ACL in her left knee.
Doty started 38 of 39 games and averaged 6.8 points this past season as the
Huskies went undef
Jets, Revis will keep talks confidential >>
Cortland, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Jets and holdout cornerback
Darrelle Revis will keep the remainder of their contract negotiations
confidential.
Revis, who has three years remaining on his rookie contract, wants
Dolphins sign Hobbs >>
Davie, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Dolphins have signed defensive back
Kevin Hobbs and guard Ray Feinga.
Hobbs has appeared in 34 games with Seattle and Detroit over the past three
seasons. He has 49 career tackles, including 13 s
Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.